Yet stepping back from the noise, the research coming out from the Street offers a useful framework for navigating the week ahead. In summarising four of our favourite reads from this week, we note HSBC’s message is that markets have already travelled a long way in pricing fear. Bank of America thinks the supply disruption eases later this year, with Barclays’ equity derivatives desk liking an equities lower/yields higher play. As for Deutsche Bank, they still believe the current sell-off falls short of previous crisis thresholds.

None of the below should be taken as fact, but when setting up for another volatile week ahead, knowledge is power.

HSBC Says We’ve Hit “Peak-Fear”

Summary View: HSBC argues that the sharp market moves following the escalation in the Middle East likely marked a “peak fear” moment, with positioning and volatility indicators reaching levels comparable to early pandemic stress. Recent headlines, with little serious escalation, led the bank to conclude that markets had overshot to the downside and were pricing a scenario unlikely to deteriorate further.

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Time for a rundown of what’s been going on between the desks this week. We begin with a more unusual piece, examining how the AI boom is shaping (and could further shape) the US dollar.

After that, we turn to Barclays, with two interesting reads. The first relates to the elevated emerging market debt funding requirements for next year, while the second examines the nuclear supercycle and how uranium is expected to play a significant role.

Finally, we look at the change of call from MUFG, which is now looking for a December rate hike from the Bank of Japan.

To access full articles and research, manage your account here.

BofA Talk AI Impact on USD

Bank of America’s FX strategy team argues that the market is still trying to understand what the AI boom means for the US dollar, and the answer isn’t straightforward.

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Time for a rundown of what’s been going on between the desks this week. Corporate earnings season generated a lot of headlines, as did the higher volatility in the precious metals space. We look at an interesting piece from Deutsche on gold holdings, but then choose to focus on different areas of interest this weekend.

You can get plenty of value in looking at what different client sets are doing, so the BofA data breakdown is a good place to start. We then look at how a continued US government shutdown could impact October data collection, followed by a UBS note on why they see opportunities in Japanese equities.

To access full articles and research, manage your account here.

BofA Show Institutional Equity Client Flows

We enjoyed looking through the latest data from Bank of America, which reported that clients returned to net selling of U.S. equities last week after briefly buying the prior week.

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Time for a rundown of what’s been going on between the desks this week. While Trump’s renewed antics with China and the start of corporate earnings took most of the headlines, some notable macro shifts flew under the radar.

The renewed volatility in crypto, amidst increasing adoption, saw Morgan Stanley put out their view on how it should fit into a model portfolio. AI has got BNP thinking about how it fits in a sustainable, clean energy world, with UBS providing an update from frequently asked questions in a high-level macro overview.

Let’s start off with MS’s crypto piece…

To access full articles and research, manage your account here.

Morgan Stanley Talk Crypto Allocations

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Time for a rundown of what’s been going on between the desks this week, with Deutsche discussing why risk assets keep rallying despite deteriorating macro conditions and Goldman pointing out why the French debt-to-GDP ratio will rise further.

Further, we cover an interesting deep-dive from Barclays on the make-up of US Treasury buyers last quarter, as well as looking at a Fed meeting review from Danske, which is still very much on the hawkish side when it comes to rate projections.

To read this piece for free, along with our Monday week ahead with trade ideas, the midweek musings, and more, get the 7-day free trial below:

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Goldman Sees French Debt Headache

Goldman has refreshed its view on French public debt in the wake of Fitch’s downgrade, and the conclusions underline just how difficult the road ahead looks.

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Time for a rundown of what’s been going on between the desks this week. The end-of-week spillover from the August US employment report naturally is a good place to start, with Barclays shifting its view on pending interest rate cuts as a result.

We also include HSBC’s take on the spike in Gilt yields and their scenario analysis for the autumn budget, along with a great read from Goldman on stablecoin and central bank digital currency adoption.

Let’s start with the Barclays economics team reviewing the payrolls report…

To access full articles and research, manage your account here.

Barclays Pivot to Three Cuts

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Time for a rundown of what’s been going on between the desks this week. Even though most were sitting on their hands waiting for Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, there was a host of cross-asset analysis outside of US monetary policy that caught our eye.

Morgan Stanley reviewed the Q2 13F filings from institutions, providing insights into how and where funds were positioned. BNP looked at where potential risk-off hedges could be found within FX, and notably doesn’t see CHF as the place to be.

After we cut our copper longs, UBS revealed they see near-term downside but remain bullish into 2026. Finally, we note some thoughts from the BofA Global Research desk following the Jackson Hole symposium.

Let’s start with the MS report about fund allocations…

To access full articles and research, manage your account here.

MS Review US Equity Institutional Positioning

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Time for a rundown of what’s been going on between the desks this week. While equity earnings and Fed chair chatter dominated the headlines, some notable macro shifts flew under the radar.

From potential moves in JPY rates to shifting growth forecasts in the US and Europe, there’s a lot to unpack this week. And while some desks are sticking to their guns, others are recalibrating based on new data and events. We agree with some thoughts and disagree with others. It’s shaping up to be an interesting few months ahead.

Let’s start off with Goldman’s macro outlook (a view that we’ll be looking to fade if markets swing this way) before moving into some notes shared from BNP, SocGen, and HSBC.

To access full articles and research, manage your account here.

Goldman’s “Macro at a Glance”

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In our Word on the Street, we summarise our favourite and most thoughtful commentary from banks, fund managers, and seasoned strategists.

This weekend, we look at:

GS Finds ‘Stock Replacement’ Opportunities

Goldman’s derivatives team sees a favourable setup for replacing outperforming stocks with long calls, as US equities trade near all-time highs and implied volatility remains below realised levels.

They screen for Buy-rated stocks that have outperformed the SPX and sector peers by >15%, with upcoming earnings likely to drive additional volatility, allowing investors to keep upside while limiting downside to the call premium.

Barclays Talk US Yield Curve Steepeners

Barclays’ FICC team notes that speculation over President Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Powell has injected a lasting risk premium into long-end rates, with 30y yields up 5bp on the week and the 5s30s curve modestly steeper.

They warn that Powell’s removal could trigger an immediate 50bp sell-off in 30y Treasuries, wider breakevens, and higher rate volatility, as markets question the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility and price in more accommodative policy.

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Rabobank Says No ECB Cut This Week

Bas van Geffen expects the ECB to keep policy rates unchanged, arguing they are “in a good position” and that further cuts would require a significant deterioration in the economic outlook, which he does not anticipate.

Trade uncertainty remains the key risk, but he views a near-term EU-US trade deal as unlikely, meaning the ECB will rely on incoming data rather than trade developments. With medium-term inflation expectations stable and the euro’s strength having limited impact, he does not expect President Lagarde to change her narrative at next week’s meeting.

ING Says USD Rally Has Further To Go

The dollar index has gained over 2% since early July, with ING strategists attributing its rebound to a renewed alignment with macro drivers, including its positive correlation with 10-year Treasury yields.

They see limited risk of renewed selloffs unless political shocks, such as Trump firing Fed Chair Powell or escalating trade tensions, materialise, and expect further dollar support as Fed rate-cut expectations ease. Strong US data, resilient capital inflows, and rising scepticism over Fed cuts are also fueling USD/JPY momentum, with ING targeting 150.00 in the near term.

Let’s break the reports down in more detail…

GS Finds ‘Stock Replacement’ Opportunities

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Markets are never short on noise. The challenge is knowing what matters and what merely fills the air. In our Word on the Street, we filter the institutional signal from the speculative static, drawing on the most thoughtful commentary from banks, fund managers, and strategists.

This weekend, we look at:

• MUFG Look Past Poor UK Data

• ING Mull Powell Departure Implications

• Barclays Says “The Left Tail of Aggressive Fed Cuts is Too Fat”

• Canada’s Jobs Market is “on Fire” According to Scotiabank

To access full articles and research, manage your account here.

Read more

Markets are never short on noise. The challenge is knowing what matters and what merely fills the air. In our Word on the Street, we filter the institutional signal from the speculative static, drawing on the most thoughtful commentary from banks, fund managers, and strategists.

This weekend, we look at:

• Goldman Sees Step-Up For BoE Rate Cuts

• Howard Marks’ Latest Investor Letter

• SocGen Find FX Proxies For Oil

• Pricing Oil-Related Iran Risks

To access full articles and research, manage your account here.

Goldman Sees Step-Up For BoE Rate Cuts

Following the latest Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday, the Economics Research team at GS noted how the communication reinforces their expectation that the MPC will cut the Bank Rate again in August. They said that the MPC’s guidance remains consistent with continued quarterly cuts, with GS expecting further labour market weakening, a slowdown in pay growth and inflation progress in the upcoming data round.

Looking beyond August, their forecasts point to rising pressures for Bank Rate to fall in H2, and forecast a step-up in the pace of cuts to sequential moves from September to a terminal rate of 3% in February.

To balance out the somewhat aggressive view, the team notes that the risks around our baseline remain skewed towards a continued quarterly pace given the MPC’s ongoing concerns around inflation persistence and the possibility of second-round effects from further upward pressure on energy prices.

The pace of cuts beyond August will depend on the data. On the activity side, GS look for payback in Q2 GDP from the strength earlier in the year and subdued growth in H2 in light of softer global growth. Moreover, they expect a further weakening of the labour market with the unemployment rate rising to 4.9% in Q4 (above the MPC’s May projection of 4.7%). While the employment indicators remain hard to read, the weaker PAYE payroll and survey data point to further softening ahead.

To add to the mix, the team look for further progress on pay growth normalisation with private sector pay growth slowing to 3.5% by year-end (vs 3.8% in the May MPR) given labour market loosening and slowing pay surveys. They likewise expect more progress on services inflation as domestic price pressures normalise, with services inflation at 4.6% in September (below the MPC’s 4.9% projection).

Howard Marks’ Latest Investor Letter

In his latest memo to Oaktree Capital investors, More on Repealing the Laws of Economics, Howard Marks returns to a familiar theme: governments often try to bend or override economic fundamentals, and the costs are mounting. Marks walks through case after case where political goals clash with market realities, arguing that “free-market economies don’t produce perfect solutions, but efforts to significantly control them make things much worse.”

He begins with rent control, where “governments are choosing winners and losers.” Elected officials, eager to appease tenants, cap rents, which serves to only disincentivise landlords, kill new supply, and lock up mobility. “You can limit the rents landlords can charge for their apartments,” Marks writes, “but they can’t make developers build new ones.”

He then dives into the California wildfire insurance crisis, a more visceral example. State regulators, in the name of consumer protection, prohibited insurers from pricing based on forward-looking risk, causing most major insurers to pull out just before devastating fires. “Just as with rents, you can limit the price insurers can charge for coverage, but you can’t make them provide coverage at that price.” The result? Widespread underinsurance and catastrophic losses.

Next, Marks shifts to tariffs, which he refers to as “a tax,” plain and simple. The Trump-era push to reindustrialise America via trade barriers may appeal politically, but it runs up against both historical precedent and hard math. “Tariffs are like a wall,” he notes, artificially propping up domestic producers at the expense of consumers. Over time, this protection breeds complacency, higher prices, and “inferior goods.” As Niall Ferguson explains, every industrial economy eventually shifts from manufacturing to services once it hits a certain income level: “We cannot go back to the 1950s... it is way more expensive to do manufacturing in this country than it is to do it practically anywhere else.”

Marks concedes there are valid cases for targeted tariffs, such as national security, unfair trade practices, and iconic industries, but warns against the sweeping impulse to insulate domestic markets. “Governments can’t require everything to be made at home without consequences.”

The memo closes with two warnings on fiscal irresponsibility. First, the US deficit is spiralling—“41 of the last 45 years have seen deficits, and trillion-dollar shortfalls are now routine.” Despite this, politicians continue cutting taxes and increasing spending. Warren Buffett put it bluntly: “We’re operating at a fiscal deficit now that is unsustainable over a very long period of time.”

Second, Social Security is running out of road. The Trust Fund will be depleted by 2035 unless painful fixes—like raising taxes or cutting benefits—are enacted. But as Marks notes, both parties are politically allergic to action. “Hands off Social Security” is the one bipartisan mantra that sticks.

Ultimately, Marks’ message is clear: policies that try to sidestep supply and demand may deliver short-term political wins, but they come with long-term economic pain. “The only way to strive for universal prosperity and ‘fairness’... is for government to mandate it. But the efforts to do so have never been successful.” Reality always reasserts itself.

SocGen Find FX Proxies For Oil

Kit Juckes on the FX strategy desk at SocGen is one of our favourites for FX and cross-asset musings. His team put out a piece with some great visuals that are worth highlighting.

One aspect was flagging up CAD strength and the potential for more appreciation going forward. CAD has done even better than SocGen expected this year, which the team remarks as being frustrating because they should not have been surprised by how much it bounced once the tariff outlook became a little clearer.

USD/CAD is, however, reacting to oil prices now. Given that the US and Canada are both big oil exporters, Kit prefers to express Middle Eastern uncertainty with CAD/JPY longs. CFTC positioning shows the market still short CAD at the last look (though it’s a shrinking short) and very long JPY (though that too is shrinking slightly now). As the chart shows, CAD/JPY has lagged the oil spike by a big margin, and thin markets could see a change in that.

For much of the past year, the CAD and oil prices were disconnected as yield dynamics dominated FX markets. However, the resurgence of geopolitical risks has rekindled the correlation between FX and commodity markets. As a result, USD/CAD is now facing selling pressure amid surging oil prices.

Kit notes that the SocGen commodity strategists have raised their Q3 oil price forecast by $4/bbl to $66.3/bbl, reflecting the persistence of risk premia until tensions between Israel and Iran are resolved. This leaves USD/CAD vulnerable to further declines.

SocGen also like being long NOK as a proxy for further oil moves, but prefer to pair it up against being short GBP, rather than playing it on NOK/SEK. This is mostly because NOK/SEK has done a much better job of tracking the oil price than CAD/JPY has done.

Pricing Oil-Related Iran Risks

Another great visual piece was put out by the commodity research team at Goldman as the week ended. It focused on oil and the impact of the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel.

Following the rise in Brent to $76-77/bbl, they estimate a geopolitical risk premium of around $10/bbl. While their base case is that Brent declines to around $60/bbl in Q4, assuming no supply disruptions, this premium appears justified in light of their lower Iran supply scenario where Brent spikes just above $90, and tail scenarios where broad regional oil production or shipping is negatively affected.

On Friday, we discussed in detail why we don’t think Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz. Although GS don’t directly offer an opinion on this, they do flag up the 45% (or 3.3mb/d) decline in oil flows through the Bab-El-Mandeb Strait (which connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean) in 2025 vs. 2023 and use it to illustrate the vulnerability of shipping to attacks from Iran-controlled Houthis.

In terms of price action from here, the team flag up shifts in the futures curve, the term structure of implied volatility, and call skew in order to suggest that oil markets believe that much higher prices are likely in the next few months, but see limited changes to the long-term outlook.

Interestingly, the Polymarket prediction market suggests probabilities of US military action against Iran by July of 65%, but of a US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025 of 50%.

That’s all from us today. See you in the morning for the weekly rundown and ideas.

AP

Markets are never short on noise. The challenge is knowing what matters and what merely fills the air. In our Word on the Street, we filter the institutional signal from the speculative static, drawing on the most thoughtful commentary from banks, fund managers, and seasoned strategists.

This weekend, we look at:

• S&P Global’s “Economic Moat” Index Outperforms

• MS Release US Consumer Pulse Survey Results

• JPM Tweaks SPX Forecasts

• Citi on EM Surprise

To access full articles and research, manage your account here.

S&P Global’s “Economic Moat” Index Outperforms

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Markets are never short on noise. The challenge is knowing what matters and what merely fills the air. In our Word on the Street, we filter the institutional signal from the speculative static, drawing on the most thoughtful commentary from banks, fund managers, and seasoned strategists. Then we take it a step further, contextualising, contrasting, and challenging those views to build a more dimensional macro picture.

This weekend, we look at:

• JPM Says Focus Back on AI

• Goldman Asks Why UK Inflation Is So High

• JPM Euro Equity Views, Stock Picks

• Danske Bank Yield Outlook

To access full articles and research, manage your account here.

JPM Says Focus Back On AI

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There’s no shortage of market noise, but some voices cut through. In our Word on the Street series, we sift through the best of what banks, managers, and strategists are saying and add our take to give you a sharper picture of the macro landscape.

This weekend, we look at:

• ING Sceptical of US/UK Trade Deal Implications

• Citi Weigh in on TWD Situation

• BofA Sees the 2020s as a Regime Shift

• Deutsche Bank Warns That Fading Dollar Privilege Could Sharply Raise U.S. Debt Costs

To access full articles and research, manage your account here.

ING Sceptical of US/UK Trade Deal Implications

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It’s time for another episode in our Word on the Street series, where we share a summary of intriguing insights and perspectives that have come across our desk from various banks, investment managers, and research teams. We also inject our thoughts to provide a well-rounded, chart-packed view of multi-assets with a macro focus this week.

We take a look at:

• Wells Fargo Forecast Five Fed Cuts This Year

• EUR/USD Kicking Higher

• BofA’s “What to Buy”

• Goldman’s Macro Landscape

To access this article and the rest of our research, subscribe here.

Wells Fargo Forecast Five Fed Cuts This Year

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In our Word on the Street series, we share a summary of intriguing insights and perspectives that have come across our desk from various banks, investment managers, and research teams. We also inject our thoughts to provide a well-rounded, chart-packed view of multi-assets.

This weekend, we take a look at:

• Goldman Muse European Tariff Fallout

• ING Lower Oil Price Forecasts

• Canada Escapes Relatively Unscathed

• MUFG See BoJ Policy Shift

To access full articles and research, manage your account here.

Goldman Muse European Tariff Fallout

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In our Word on the Street series, we share a summary of intriguing insights and perspectives that have come across our desk from various banks, investment managers, and research teams. We also inject our thoughts to provide a well-rounded, chart-packed view of multi-assets.

This weekend, we take a look at:

• Goldman’s Prime Book Leverage

• MUFG on XAU and U.S. Yields

• Crédit Agricole’s Updated FX Outlook

• BofA EU Flows

To access full articles and research, manage your account here.

Note: We have removed the paywall on a previous post so all readers can see the value in this series before upgrading to paid.

Goldman on the “Bag7”/Market leverage

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In our Word on the Street series, we share a summary of intriguing insights and perspectives that have come across our desk from various banks, investment managers, and research teams. We also inject our thoughts to provide a well-rounded, chart-packed view on multi-assets.

This weekend, we take a look at:

• SocGen Eye EUR/USD Upside

• GS Mull European Spending

• Bullish Platinum Call From UBS

• Nomura & The ‘Trump Put’

To access full articles and research, manage your account here.

SocGen Eye EUR/USD Upside

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In our Word on the Street series, we share a summary of intriguing insights and perspectives that have come across our desk from various banks, investment managers, and research teams. We also inject our own thoughts to provide a well-rounded, chart-packed view on multi-assets.

This weekend, we take a look at:

• Goldman and JPMorgan Retail Inflows

• Global Rates and QRA

• Citi and BofA Raise Gold Targets

• BofA Bullish on Bonds

To access full articles and research, manage your account here.

Inflows

The largest retail buy imbalance in the history of GS dataset (starting in 2019) took place on 1/17/25 +$5.03bn. This dataset includes coivd times. The second largest retail imbalance took place on Monday 2/3/25 +$4.89bn. Tuesday (2/4/2025) was the fifth largest retail imbalance in our dataset of +$4.23bn. Four of the top five retail imbalances in the dataset took place in the last two weeks (i.e. buying the dip).

It’s no surprise that around 70% of the inflows on Tuesday were directed towards the Mag7 stocks, setting a new record, according to data from JPMorgan. Notably, Nvidia Corp., which saw a 3% decline the previous day, emerged as a top choice among retail investors.

Goldman’s Global Rates

At the quarterly refunding decision, the Treasury kept auction sizes unchanged outside of $1bn increases to 10y TIPS (reopening) and 5y TIPS (new issue). The guidance that “based on current projected borrowing needs, Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters” remained in place.

We think there are a couple of reasonable interpretations of the decisions to leave the guidance. One is that the Treasury has a relatively sanguine deficit assumption that implies lower overall funding needs and affords more patience in deciding eventual coupon size adjustments. The other is that the Treasury is comfortable sustaining a slightly higher-for-longer bill share.

The market reaction aligned with the interpretation that the Treasury will lean more on bills. We’re inclined to take a balanced read, putting some weight on the possibility that the deficit assumption may also be a differentiating factor here. Still, today’s outcome does raise the prospect that Treasury is willing to let the bill share run higher-for-longer. GS pushed out their baseline expectation for coupon auction size increases from November 2025 to February 2026, which would see the bill share remain around 21.5% through 2026 before declining to 20% by mid-2027 under our deficit profile.

BofA Yen Call

BofA’s signals are broadly bullish JPY vs global currencies. Option flow showed rising demand for JPY calls last week and trend analysis shows several bearish signals for cross-JPYs.

Citi’s Gold

Following a strong 27% annual gain in 2024, gold has rallied another 10% YTD, outperforming all major asset classes, breaching Citi’s 0-3m point-price target of $2,800/oz. This week, Citi upgraded its 0-3m target to $3,000/oz while keeping its 6-12m target unchanged at $3,000/oz (in-line with BofA targets), and also upgrading its 2025 average forecast from $2,800/oz to $2,900/oz.

Citi update:

BofA: 1930s depression, 1970s stagflation, 9/11, GFC, populism in 2020s, and regime change Trump 2.0 determined to make history.

Ongoing trade wars and geopolitical tensions are strengthening the trend of reserve diversification and de-dollarization, which, in turn, is driving gold demand from emerging market official sectors. Additionally, concerns about global growth—related to tariffs and economic cycles—are likely to boost investment demand through ETFs and over-the-counter markets. If a peace deal is reached between Russia and Ukraine, and we find out whether gold will be exempt from broad tariffs, we could see a prime buying opportunity in the next couple of months.

We anticipate that global gold ETF holdings will experience their first annual inflow in 2025, breaking a streak of four consecutive years of outflows. Even with a soft landing scenario for the U.S. factored into our base case, we expect gold ETFs to remain appealing due to an uptick in macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. These include ongoing trade tensions, escalating risks in the Middle East, persistently high interest rates impacting growth, a declining U.S. labor market, potential drawdowns in equity markets, and an increasing need for portfolio hedging and diversification.

BofA Bonds

Bank of America predicts that U.S. Treasury yields are likely to dip below 4%. With $37tn in government debt and a budget deficit averaging 9% of GDP over the past five years, these factors have significantly contributed to a remarkable 50% increase in U.S. nominal GDP since 2020. The $7tn U.S. government now stands as the third-largest economy in the world, and both Trump and Musk are counting on a U.S. government recession to help mitigate the spiraling national debt. Interest payments are expected to surge by $100-300bn in the coming 12 months, which poses challenges (as shown in Chart 5). To push through Trump’s proposed tax cuts, they will need the support of the GOP’s deficit-conscious Freedom Caucus, possibly through budget reconciliation.

The newly established Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) aims to achieve $1tn in public sector savings. While BofA Global Research Economics estimates the base case for savings to be around $150-300bn, this figure could potentially rise to $500 billion (which is about 1.5% of GDP) if the administration successfully implements spending cuts and deals with layoff-related litigation. With the U.S. defense budget projected to exceed $900bn in ‘24, up from $630bn in ‘19 (see Chart 6), cutting back in this area could be a tempting opportunity for savings, especially as “forever wars” come to an end. Overall, a U.S. government recession could have a positive impact on bonds.

“All great bull markets begin with a bear market rally.” Currently, Treasuries, which have been overlooked, are staging a bear market rally in 2025 and are still the best hedge against peaks in asset prices. The risk-reward dynamics for bonds are looking more favorable. BofA analysis suggests that a ‘low-risk’ bond portfolio—comprising 20% T-bills, 20% 30-year US Treasuries, 20% investment-grade bonds, 20% high-yield bonds, and 20% emerging market bonds—could yield 9-10% if U.S. Treasury yields retreat toward 4%, which they anticipate yields will do in 2025.

Top 5

While the dominance of a select few stocks is often noted as a problem for the U.S. index, throughout history, many of the globe’s major indices have remained heavily focused on a select basket. This metric alone does not call for a major correction. However, the heightened volatility of these stocks does lead to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq seeing some bigger moves (think back to DeepSeek’s effect on tech just a few weeks ago).

However, the continued growth of this dominance is an interesting one to see. A great visual came across our desk, with annotations on historical scenarios.

APFX Research

The new APFX branch of AlphaPicks has set up a macro heatmap. The 5-day moves of multiple assets are below.

Hang Seng was big green despite being hit with tariffs to start the week, as was natgas and copper as commodities had a strong week (the Bloomberg Commodity Index closed the week up 188bps). Yen strength saw USDJPY the biggest loser among G10 pairs, while crude continued to sell-off.

Hope you’ve had a great weekend. We’ll leave it there for this week.

See you Monday,

AP

In our Word on the Street series, we share a summary of intriguing insights and perspectives we've encountered throughout the week from various banks, investment managers, and research teams. We also inject our own thoughts to provide a well-rounded view.

This weekend, we take a look at:

• Goldman Flag A More Benign Tone on Tariffs

• Citi Flip Their Bullish USD Call

• Goldman’s Prime Book

• BofA Note EU Stock Inflow

To access full articles and research, manage your account here.

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