Flipping the Macro Script

A short note on this morning's payroll print, which did more than surprise.

After months of resilience in US data, July’s nonfarm payrolls miss, combined with deep revisions to prior months, has pulled the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate back into the spotlight. Treasury yields fell sharply, the dollar gave up gains, and equities sold off… A narrative shock for a strong-stanced Fed.

We have a few thoughts and a trade on the back of today’s action.