Not the Obvious Trade
Musing on the markets following: earnings, AI, and single stock catalysts.
Earnings season always rearranges the story. Numbers land, guidance shifts, and tone changes on the calls. Markets digest new information unevenly: some stocks overshoot, others lag behind the narrative, and a few reveal something genuinely new. These are the moments we look for when positioning, expectation, and fundamentals fall briefly out of alignment.
We also had a market pullback earlier in the week. 2025 has been defined by a persistent reluctance to sell winners and an equally persistent tendency to buy dips. Every correction has carried more fear than follow-through. Liquidity remains ample, corporate balance sheets are strong, and the structural demand for US duration-lite equity exposure hasn’t meaningfully changed. If anything, the path of least resistance is still up, just not in a straight line.
Against that backdrop, the latest round of earnings and commentary surfaced three themes worth leaning into:
(1) The AI bottleneck is becoming clear.
(2) Who hasn’t partnered with OpenAI at this point, but maybe this one name makes a rebound story possible.
(3) High short interest name into earnings on our radar.
So here are a few market notes and additions to the portfolio: