Signalling a Shift

A short note on Jackson Hole and the September setup.

Chair Powell walked into Jackson Hole with markets already leaning toward a rate cut. He didn’t disappoint. While trying to preserve optionality, the message was clear: the labour market is softening, tariffs are complicating inflation, and the Fed is preparing to act.

His phrasing, “the balance of risks appears to be shifting”, was a deliberate signal. Downside labour risks are rising, and monetary policy may need to get ahead of it.

Time to run through what this means for markets from here and how we’re positioned.