Geopolitics rarely follows clean lines. Yet if you look past the fog of headlines and the posturing from Washington, a new geometry is taking shape, and it looks nothing like what the Trump administration had planned.
India, long positioned as the democratic counterweight to China, is dancing a little closer to the dragon. China, once suspicious of Modi’s strategic ambitions, now sees him as a pragmatic partner. And hovering awkwardly at the edge of this pas de deux is the United States, fresh off slapping 50% tariffs on India, while watching OpenAI plant its AI flag on Indian soil.
The choreography is complex. Russia’s oil flows through Indian refineries, China’s rare earths power Indian factories, and Silicon Valley’s biggest AI firm is now whispering sweet nothings into Hyderabad’s data centres.
Xi Jinping may have said it best: “The international situation is both fluid and chaotic.” But in that chaos, the contours of a new economic alignment are starting to form. Less Cold War, more Cold Commerce.
Let’s unpack the dance.
Modi Hugs Putin, Shakes Xi’s Hand
India’s relationship with the United States has been tested before. But this time it feels different. Trump’s second-term trade policy has taken a sledgehammer to the very idea of strategic alignment. 50% tariffs on Indian exports. Public shaming over Russian oil. Accusations of laundering for the Kremlin. It’s the kind of treatment usually reserved for adversaries, not allies.
So when Modi showed up in Tianjin for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, he didn’t just meet Xi. He rode shotgun in Putin’s limo, called the Russia relationship “special”, and smiled for the cameras while the US fumed.
The message was clear: if Washington wants to play rough, New Delhi has options.