It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Trump declares he’s firing Powell. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see the 10 year shoot up 50 or more bps that day. The only thing worse than an insulated government committee setting rates is politicians setting rates.
Really well-written, but I can’t help wondering if we’re overstating the Fed’s independence like it’s some untouchable relic. Politicians have always found ways to lean on policy without technically crossing legal lines — and markets adapt to that dance. Maybe the bigger risk isn’t political pressure itself, but the illusion that monetary policy was ever fully insulated to begin with.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Trump declares he’s firing Powell. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see the 10 year shoot up 50 or more bps that day. The only thing worse than an insulated government committee setting rates is politicians setting rates.
100.
GM
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Really well-written, but I can’t help wondering if we’re overstating the Fed’s independence like it’s some untouchable relic. Politicians have always found ways to lean on policy without technically crossing legal lines — and markets adapt to that dance. Maybe the bigger risk isn’t political pressure itself, but the illusion that monetary policy was ever fully insulated to begin with.