What I find most useful in this framing is the observation that institutionalisation and volatility premium are inversely related. That is not a Bitcoin-specific dynamic. It is a structural pattern that shows up across asset classes. Private equity delivered outsize returns when it was under-owned and under-regulated. Emerging markets carried a genuine risk premium before dedicated EM funds made them accessible.
High yield offered real compensation before it became a standard allocation. The mechanism in each case is the same: the process of legitimising an asset class compresses the premium that made it worth owning in the first place. Bitcoin has followed the same arc faster than most. The more interesting allocator question is where the next genuinely under-owned, high-volatility narrative with structural backing currently sits. The piece implicitly answers that: semiconductors and AI infrastructure in March 2026.
In my view, the more honest version of that observation is that those assets are now doing what Bitcoin did in 2021, attracting speculative capital on a legitimate fundamental story, which means they are also beginning the same institutionalisation process that eventually compressed Bitcoin's premium.
Great read AP! The upcoming equity issuance of the big 3 IPOs will likely extend this trend. The money has to come from somewhere and BTC (+ wider crypto market) is up there with how liquid it is.
The SpaceX IPO is going to take in money from everywhere and if you were in on bitcoin and nursing a loss at the moment, why wouldn’t you cash out and go hard on Elon. It served people well in the past. This of course leaves less money for Bitcoin and this could be, in my view, the start of the downward spiral. Retail investors have less disposable incomes, there is a suite of IPO’s coming up, all the while energy prices are spiking across the globe. If ever there was a perfect storm for Bitcoin, this would be it.
Say it louder for the people in the back! Great read sir.
What I find most useful in this framing is the observation that institutionalisation and volatility premium are inversely related. That is not a Bitcoin-specific dynamic. It is a structural pattern that shows up across asset classes. Private equity delivered outsize returns when it was under-owned and under-regulated. Emerging markets carried a genuine risk premium before dedicated EM funds made them accessible.
High yield offered real compensation before it became a standard allocation. The mechanism in each case is the same: the process of legitimising an asset class compresses the premium that made it worth owning in the first place. Bitcoin has followed the same arc faster than most. The more interesting allocator question is where the next genuinely under-owned, high-volatility narrative with structural backing currently sits. The piece implicitly answers that: semiconductors and AI infrastructure in March 2026.
In my view, the more honest version of that observation is that those assets are now doing what Bitcoin did in 2021, attracting speculative capital on a legitimate fundamental story, which means they are also beginning the same institutionalisation process that eventually compressed Bitcoin's premium.
Great read AP! The upcoming equity issuance of the big 3 IPOs will likely extend this trend. The money has to come from somewhere and BTC (+ wider crypto market) is up there with how liquid it is.
The SpaceX IPO is going to take in money from everywhere and if you were in on bitcoin and nursing a loss at the moment, why wouldn’t you cash out and go hard on Elon. It served people well in the past. This of course leaves less money for Bitcoin and this could be, in my view, the start of the downward spiral. Retail investors have less disposable incomes, there is a suite of IPO’s coming up, all the while energy prices are spiking across the globe. If ever there was a perfect storm for Bitcoin, this would be it.